I run an eBay store for a living. I've been hearing “eBay is dying” for the entire time I've been on the platform. And every time I open the books, the platform's books, or the macro data, the story doesn't match what the YouTube guys are selling.

Here's what I actually see when I look at the data: eBay just had its strongest year in years, the secondhand market is in a structural boom, and even after the Supreme Court torched half of Trump's tariff regime in February, the trade environment is still pushing buyers toward used goods — through other legal authorities the Court left untouched.

This is the case, with receipts.

1. The Financials Are Not What a Dying Company Looks Like

A dying company doesn't post accelerating growth, raise its dividend, and hand $3 billion back to shareholders in a single year. eBay did all three.

Straight from the FY2025 earnings release, reported in February 2026:

Source: eBay Q4/FY2025 results press release

“eBay is in the strongest position it has been in years.” — Jamie Iannone, CEO, on the Q4 2025 earnings call

The thing nobody talks about: growth is accelerating into 2026, not decaying. Q4 revenue growth (+15%) was nearly double the full-year rate (+8%). That's the opposite of a melting ice cube. That's a flywheel that just got pushed.

FY2025 At A Glance

$11.1B
Revenue
+8% YoY
$79.6B
GMV
+7% YoY
$3.0B
Returned to
shareholders

2. The Tariff Picture Got Messier — But Still Helps Used Goods

This is the part most blog posts get wrong, including, until I caught it, an earlier draft of this one. Here's what actually happened in 2026:

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that the IEEPA does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. All the “reciprocal” tariffs, the fentanyl-trafficking tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico — gone. CBP stopped collecting them on February 24. Source: Skadden Source: White & Case

That sounds like the bear case for this whole article. It isn't. Because the Trump administration immediately pivoted to three other tariff authorities the Court did NOT touch:

Net effect: the average effective US tariff rate is currently ~11.8% as of April 6, 2026 — the highest since the early 1940s, even after the Supreme Court ruling. Source: Yale Budget Lab

And the de minimis $800 exemption is still suspended. After the Supreme Court ruling, Trump issued a new executive order on February 20, 2026, keeping it suspended under different legal authority. Marketplace, Supply Chain Dive, and Ordoro all confirm: as of right now, you still pay tariffs on imports under $800. Source: Marketplace Source: Supply Chain Dive Source: Ordoro

That last one matters most for eBay. The de minimis loophole was the value-tier playbook for Temu and Shein. As long as it stays closed, their landed-cost advantage stays gone, and the value-hunter US shopper has every reason to look at used goods on eBay instead.

The Honest Caveat

The tariff picture is genuinely uncertain. Section 122 expires July 24, 2026 unless Congress extends it. The de minimis suspension is being legally challenged. New Section 301 actions take time to enact and could face their own court fights. Don't bet your store on any single tariff staying in place. The bull case for eBay doesn't depend on tariffs alone — the secondhand boom (next section) was already happening before any of this.

3. The Secondhand Boom Is Already Here

This isn't a forecast either. It's already happening, and the data is unambiguous.

Behavioral shift, in real time:

Market size is exploding. US secondhand grew 13% in 2025 vs. 3.6% for retail clothing — nearly 4x faster. Source: Retail Dive

Global secondhand apparel: $257B in 2025, projected to hit $393B by 2030. US specifically: $78.8B by 2030. Source: ThredUp Resale Report 2026 (via Get Circular)

And the resale platforms are confirming it in their own numbers:

When new prices spike, used wins. eBay is the largest, oldest, deepest used-goods marketplace in the United States. It's holding the bag of money everyone else is scrambling for.

4. eBay's Moat Has Quietly Gotten Wider

While people were writing the obituary, eBay was quietly rebuilding the engine. The 2025 numbers tell that story too:

eBay isn't fighting Amazon on commodity new goods anymore. It moved upmarket into categories where authentication, scarcity, and community matter — and where Amazon literally cannot compete because they don't have the seller base or the trust infrastructure for graded cards, certified watches, vintage motors, or one-of-one luxury.

The Depop deal is the tell. Gen Z is 62% secondhand shoppers, and eBay just bought their second-favorite app to pair with their first.

5. The Competitors Everyone Compares eBay To Are Actually Dying

The “eBay is dying” narrative usually points at “scrappy upstarts” eating its lunch. Let's actually look at those upstarts.

In the marketplace where eBay competes most directly — secondhand at scale — eBay is the largest, most profitable, most cash-generative player. The closest US pure-play resale competitor (ThredUp) does $310M a year. eBay does $11.1 billion. That's a 35x revenue gap.

6. The Real Timeline

Here's the actual 2025–2026 timeline, with the dates that matter:

When Event Effect
Aug 29, 2025 De minimis $800 exemption suspended Sub-$800 imports lose their duty-free advantage
Jan 15, 2026 25% Section 232 tariff on advanced semiconductors Cost floor rises on chip-heavy electronics
Feb 18, 2026 eBay reports record FY2025 + agrees to buy Depop Recommerce now 40%+ of GMV; Gen Z lock-in
Feb 20, 2026 Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs 6-3 Reciprocal & fentanyl tariffs gone; admin pivots
Feb 24, 2026 10% Section 122 global tariff replaces IEEPA tariffs Effective rate stays elevated (~11.8% by April)
Apr 6, 2026 Section 232 steel/aluminum/copper raised to 50% New-goods prices keep climbing in metal-heavy categories
Jul 24, 2026 Section 122 expires unless Congress extends Key uncertainty point — Section 301 may take its place
2026–2030 US secondhand path to $78.8B by 2030 eBay is the dominant incumbent

The bull case for eBay doesn't require any single tariff to survive. It requires two of these three things to stay true:

  1. Some form of elevated effective tariff persists — through Section 122, Section 232, Section 301, or successor authorities
  2. The de minimis suspension holds (or is replaced with something equivalent) — structurally limiting Temu/Shein
  3. Consumer behavior toward secondhand stays sticky once formed (the data says it does — that's why ThredUp is forecasting $78.8B US by 2030)

Every one of those three is currently true. Even if one of them breaks, the other two carry the thesis. That's what makes it a real bull case instead of a single-policy bet.

The Bottom Line

eBay is profitable. eBay is growing. eBay is returning capital. The numbers in the FY2025 release don't have an asterisk — they're audited and they're good.

The tariff picture is messier than it was three months ago, and anyone who tells you it's a one-way bet is selling you something. The Supreme Court took out the biggest piece. But the pieces that remain — Section 232 on metals and chips, Section 122 as a bridge, Section 301 in the pipeline, and a still-suspended de minimis exemption — still tilt the playing field toward used goods.

The “eBay is dying” thesis required a world where new goods stayed cheap forever and Gen Z never bought used. Both halves of that thesis are wrong, and have been wrong for a while now — tariffs or no tariffs.

The bull case isn't “tariffs save eBay.” The bull case is: eBay is winning the secondhand category at the exact moment secondhand becomes the default for an entire generation.

If you sell on eBay, the smart move right now isn't to look for the exit. It's to source heavier, list smarter, and sit in the middle of the biggest structural tailwind this platform has had in over a decade.

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The Noble Cache is a Top Rated Plus eBay seller based in Pensacola, FL with 3,200+ sales. The Reseller's Edge is our blog covering the operational and strategic side of running a high-volume reselling business.